Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,154$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(360 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,724.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,724.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $453$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(61.3 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{438.2}{1 + 10^{-0.088 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(438.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,880$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(101 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.7}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.4}{1 + 10^{-0.093 (t - 11.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $604$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(51.5 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,094.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,094.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(6.91 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28.6}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 16.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $497$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,569$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(311 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,691.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,691.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $171$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(35.8 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{165.3}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 17.2)}}\) (asimptote \(165.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,315$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,895$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(301 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,713.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,713.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $406$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(36.8 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{529.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(529.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,029$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $998$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{970.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(970.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(10.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.4}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(40.4\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $641$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,832$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(196 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,484.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,484.4\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(5.61 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79.3}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(79.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $837$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $649$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(173 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{660.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 17.1)}}\) (asimptote \(660.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 19.0)}}\) (asimptote \(47.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $88$ on 2020-05-01
